Friday, March 13, 2009
Survivor: Tocantins - 1805
This week didn't have any big strategy moves, but did feature two fantastic challenges. They were the most impressive for a single episode that I can remember. We'll get to them a little bit later on.
Taj, Brendan, Stephen and Sierra are working to solidify their cross-tribal 4 person alliance. Taj found the immunity idol finally so they now have both immunity idols in their possession. I was a little surprised that she gave it to Stephen immediately. I was even more surprised that Stephen immediately considered the idol to be his. Technically she did give it to him, but I can't imagine the fury if Taj asked for it back and he didn't give it to her.
Sierra also seemed to be getting a little cocky proclaiming the alliance unstoppable. She also said "I'm proud of myself, I formed an amazing alliance" If she means that Brendan and Taj decided she should be in on it then I guess she did form the alliance. She did bring Brendan into the hunt for the immunity idol on day 2 so she was not just standing by helplessly.
I continue to think that the alliance switching up who goes to Exile is a good idea. Although they should have tried to get some more buy in from the tribe on who to send. If Brendan had somehow told them he wanted Stephen to go beforehand then Tyson might not be so suspicious. Stephen is right to keep his options open and not burn his bridges just yet. This alliance will put them in a good position at the merge but a 4 person alliance isn't a sure thing when you're split 2/2 and there are 12 people left.
Reward Challenge
When I saw that the challenge would involve spinning people around and then walking balance beams, I knew we were in for a good one. There's always something funny about people getting dizzy and trying to walk. it's probably because walking is usually so easy. And even better the reward is a trip to the product placement experience. The only problem is that the sponsor is Charmin who makes a product they can't show the Survivors using. Brilliant marketing scheme there.
I wonder how they decided the matchups for who goes against who. Do they write them down ahead of time or try to match people up on the spot? Spencer didn't even look that dizzy getting off the spinner, maybe he just looks dizzy all the time. Highlight may have been JT falling off the balance beam before he even got one foot on. At least that didn't cost him much time to go back to the beginning. Ultimately Jalapao ends up winning and sent Brendan again, who took Stephen.
Immunity Challenge
With the equipment for the challenge JT exclaims "I can hit or throw anything". After enough time playing softball I've learned that people who say they're really good, usually suck. Actual good players usually say they're pretty good or alright. JT is the exception, that guy was a beast out there. He nearly single-handedly got Jalapao the win. In the process he got part of his tooth knocked out. Even better is that he just spit it out like it was nothing. The thing is, he's probably right. Probst was in a big hurry to get that tooth back to him but what's he going to do with it now. Chew his food before it's in his mouth?
Timbira had a huge comeback. Partially spurred on by Taj matching up with Brendan. That was no contest and anyone could see it. Then Spencer seemed to have an off day and let Tyson get the best of him. They should have just taken all the other people out and let JT win the whole thing for them. That would have worked, Jalapao just keeps shooting it deep.
Strategy Analysis
Taj is choosing an interesting strategy in attacking her tribe with a bunch of vocal outbursts. She says at tribal council that anything can cost you, so that's just another thing you can't worry about. The problem with this logic is that exploding at your tribe is one of the few things you can control. She's a wild card and this was an especially bad time to go off since there were no obvious targets since Crazy Sandy was gone. You know that makes her partner Stephen nervous. I think that Stephen's option to let Taj get voted out and keep the idol would be a fantastic play. Especially when Taj is going off on people like that. This is his last chance before a merge to do that because with Spencer out she's definitely the one they're coming for.
Spencer didn't really come across as that weak or bad in challenges. JT was really pissed after this week's immunity but I wonder what else was going on there. Taj didn't perform either and she just seems to out there. Spencer was more contrite and took a different tack. I think he should have been slightly more passionate and not just agree with how much he disappointed all of them.
The bit about how Spencer is gay and didn't want to tell his tribe was certainly something that the producers wanted in the show and figured it had to be now since he's getting voted off (I should have seen that as a clue). It didn't really fit in the show at this point. I'm torn on how to feel about that. On the one hand you don't want to give someone a reason to vote you out. But at the same time by assuming they won't accept you aren't you just judging them too? It's a tough question in a game where there are few second chances (unless you're Lil)
My Prediction
Taj. Her outbursts have to start costing her. I'm still bad at this game. Spencer didn't seem to perform that badly in other challenges. Maybe Stephen was very persuasive.
Season total: 1-4 (.200)
Spell Check
Right: 6
Wrong: 0
Other: 0
Season total: 26-8-2 (.765)
Quick hit thoughts
Taj, Brendan, Stephen and Sierra are working to solidify their cross-tribal 4 person alliance. Taj found the immunity idol finally so they now have both immunity idols in their possession. I was a little surprised that she gave it to Stephen immediately. I was even more surprised that Stephen immediately considered the idol to be his. Technically she did give it to him, but I can't imagine the fury if Taj asked for it back and he didn't give it to her.
Sierra also seemed to be getting a little cocky proclaiming the alliance unstoppable. She also said "I'm proud of myself, I formed an amazing alliance" If she means that Brendan and Taj decided she should be in on it then I guess she did form the alliance. She did bring Brendan into the hunt for the immunity idol on day 2 so she was not just standing by helplessly.
I continue to think that the alliance switching up who goes to Exile is a good idea. Although they should have tried to get some more buy in from the tribe on who to send. If Brendan had somehow told them he wanted Stephen to go beforehand then Tyson might not be so suspicious. Stephen is right to keep his options open and not burn his bridges just yet. This alliance will put them in a good position at the merge but a 4 person alliance isn't a sure thing when you're split 2/2 and there are 12 people left.
Reward Challenge
When I saw that the challenge would involve spinning people around and then walking balance beams, I knew we were in for a good one. There's always something funny about people getting dizzy and trying to walk. it's probably because walking is usually so easy. And even better the reward is a trip to the product placement experience. The only problem is that the sponsor is Charmin who makes a product they can't show the Survivors using. Brilliant marketing scheme there.
I wonder how they decided the matchups for who goes against who. Do they write them down ahead of time or try to match people up on the spot? Spencer didn't even look that dizzy getting off the spinner, maybe he just looks dizzy all the time. Highlight may have been JT falling off the balance beam before he even got one foot on. At least that didn't cost him much time to go back to the beginning. Ultimately Jalapao ends up winning and sent Brendan again, who took Stephen.
Immunity Challenge
With the equipment for the challenge JT exclaims "I can hit or throw anything". After enough time playing softball I've learned that people who say they're really good, usually suck. Actual good players usually say they're pretty good or alright. JT is the exception, that guy was a beast out there. He nearly single-handedly got Jalapao the win. In the process he got part of his tooth knocked out. Even better is that he just spit it out like it was nothing. The thing is, he's probably right. Probst was in a big hurry to get that tooth back to him but what's he going to do with it now. Chew his food before it's in his mouth?
Timbira had a huge comeback. Partially spurred on by Taj matching up with Brendan. That was no contest and anyone could see it. Then Spencer seemed to have an off day and let Tyson get the best of him. They should have just taken all the other people out and let JT win the whole thing for them. That would have worked, Jalapao just keeps shooting it deep.
Strategy Analysis
Taj is choosing an interesting strategy in attacking her tribe with a bunch of vocal outbursts. She says at tribal council that anything can cost you, so that's just another thing you can't worry about. The problem with this logic is that exploding at your tribe is one of the few things you can control. She's a wild card and this was an especially bad time to go off since there were no obvious targets since Crazy Sandy was gone. You know that makes her partner Stephen nervous. I think that Stephen's option to let Taj get voted out and keep the idol would be a fantastic play. Especially when Taj is going off on people like that. This is his last chance before a merge to do that because with Spencer out she's definitely the one they're coming for.
Spencer didn't really come across as that weak or bad in challenges. JT was really pissed after this week's immunity but I wonder what else was going on there. Taj didn't perform either and she just seems to out there. Spencer was more contrite and took a different tack. I think he should have been slightly more passionate and not just agree with how much he disappointed all of them.
The bit about how Spencer is gay and didn't want to tell his tribe was certainly something that the producers wanted in the show and figured it had to be now since he's getting voted off (I should have seen that as a clue). It didn't really fit in the show at this point. I'm torn on how to feel about that. On the one hand you don't want to give someone a reason to vote you out. But at the same time by assuming they won't accept you aren't you just judging them too? It's a tough question in a game where there are few second chances (unless you're Lil)
My Prediction
Taj. Her outbursts have to start costing her. I'm still bad at this game. Spencer didn't seem to perform that badly in other challenges. Maybe Stephen was very persuasive.
Season total: 1-4 (.200)
Spell Check
Right: 6
Wrong: 0
Other: 0
Season total: 26-8-2 (.765)
Quick hit thoughts
- I thought that Coach talking about the wind shifting was symbolic of power shifting in the game. It was actually him just bad at predicting weather. You know they couldn't have an episode without Coach doing something crazy.
- Jeff must do the voice overs for the challenges after the fact. They were clearly shooting the balls in the reward challenge at the same time but he was able to describe each in turn
- Stephen does run like that all the time
- I thought Joe might have torn an ACL for a moment there. I'm not sure whether that's foreshadowing or just to contrast with JT spitting out a bloody tooth
Labels: dentistry, dizziness, Tocantins
Sunday, March 08, 2009
Survivor: Tocantins - 1804
This week saw the fleshing out of a quite impressive four-way, cross-tribe alliance. Taj and Brendan for the most part worked out the details with Stephen and Sierra to bring them in and this can play out well. As Nick pointed out in the comments from last week, they need to hide this alliance. The preview for next time hints that they might not be totally discreet as to who they are allying with.
In the irony category, I find it sweet that Jalapao is very concerned with how Exile Island is wearing on Taj, while she actually is delighted to be going there and setting up her alliance. I also think that Brendan and Taj's plan to bring in the other members of the alliance to send to Exile sometimes is a master stroke. Of course Brendan forgot a key part of that setup. He had to talk to Sierra and tell her to pick Stephen/Taj otherwise it could go off the rails. It's good that worked out for the best for them.
Reward Challenge
This challenge was a repeat but always very enjoyable. Probst was bringing up Rupert who had the record for the most weight but the one I really remember was Savage. You expect Rupert to do well since he was a mountain of a man, Savage really pulled more than his weight. This week was exciting since it looked like Timbira was out of it then bang-bang and Joe dropped out from nowhere. Then it turned right around and Timbira grabbed the victory.
I think with these challenges it's best to spread the weight around initially maybe putting it on the guys first. Someone really needs to do a careful study of the optimal strategy, but it is somewhat hard because it will also come down to how much you think they can handle. Who would have thought that Osten couldn't handle that much in Panama.
The reward from this also involved raiding the other tribe's camp. It was clear that they had to take the beans (fartin' beans) but what a great idea to leave half of them. I wasn't even thinking about the potential switch-up but purely from a goodwill standpoint you don't want to be on the hook for starving out the other tribe. You know they're not catching fish either. That was well played. Sandy's description of leaving the other tribe with beans is like leaving your enemy with guns is way off base. At this point Jalapao needs to win as many as possible but the other people aren't their enemies, they just a separate tribe who will eventually merge in.
Immunity Challenge
Look a challenge that involves knot untying. That has to be on the Survivor drinking game. This one was pretty good, but with these word puzzles it's harder for the viewer to decide how one team is doing relative to the other. Either team could have solved at any time and we wouldn't have really known the difference ahead of time. I was glad that Timbira won because it's good to keep the tribes relatively even. It also gives the producers more options
Strategy Analysis
This week's vote was pretty much a no-brainer. Sandy was not a great asset and seemed like she was annoying the tribe most of the time. To spice things up a bit they threw in the Sydney flirt wildcard. By flirting she is going to help her cause with the guys but does risk alienating certain people. We saw that at tribal when Taj seemed to not really enjoy Sydney's flirting much. Think about that for the votes at the end. Also Sydney's proclamation that she like the sneakiness of it was interesting. For her sake I'm going to assume that got cut into the show from some other conversation and she didn't say that just before Tribal. Sydney is gorgeous by the way. She is right up there in the best-looking Survivors ever.
My Prediction
Sandy. I'm getting on the board this week and not falling for any fake dispute. A vote for Joe? Must have been that Taj said she wouldn't vote for Sandy. We didn't really see any reasoning to explain that one.
Season total: 1-3 (.250)
Spell Check
Right: 6
Wrong: 0
Other: 1 (Mama K)
Season total: 20-8-2 (.714)
Quick hit thoughts
In the irony category, I find it sweet that Jalapao is very concerned with how Exile Island is wearing on Taj, while she actually is delighted to be going there and setting up her alliance. I also think that Brendan and Taj's plan to bring in the other members of the alliance to send to Exile sometimes is a master stroke. Of course Brendan forgot a key part of that setup. He had to talk to Sierra and tell her to pick Stephen/Taj otherwise it could go off the rails. It's good that worked out for the best for them.
Reward Challenge
This challenge was a repeat but always very enjoyable. Probst was bringing up Rupert who had the record for the most weight but the one I really remember was Savage. You expect Rupert to do well since he was a mountain of a man, Savage really pulled more than his weight. This week was exciting since it looked like Timbira was out of it then bang-bang and Joe dropped out from nowhere. Then it turned right around and Timbira grabbed the victory.
I think with these challenges it's best to spread the weight around initially maybe putting it on the guys first. Someone really needs to do a careful study of the optimal strategy, but it is somewhat hard because it will also come down to how much you think they can handle. Who would have thought that Osten couldn't handle that much in Panama.
The reward from this also involved raiding the other tribe's camp. It was clear that they had to take the beans (fartin' beans) but what a great idea to leave half of them. I wasn't even thinking about the potential switch-up but purely from a goodwill standpoint you don't want to be on the hook for starving out the other tribe. You know they're not catching fish either. That was well played. Sandy's description of leaving the other tribe with beans is like leaving your enemy with guns is way off base. At this point Jalapao needs to win as many as possible but the other people aren't their enemies, they just a separate tribe who will eventually merge in.
Immunity Challenge
Look a challenge that involves knot untying. That has to be on the Survivor drinking game. This one was pretty good, but with these word puzzles it's harder for the viewer to decide how one team is doing relative to the other. Either team could have solved at any time and we wouldn't have really known the difference ahead of time. I was glad that Timbira won because it's good to keep the tribes relatively even. It also gives the producers more options
Strategy Analysis
This week's vote was pretty much a no-brainer. Sandy was not a great asset and seemed like she was annoying the tribe most of the time. To spice things up a bit they threw in the Sydney flirt wildcard. By flirting she is going to help her cause with the guys but does risk alienating certain people. We saw that at tribal when Taj seemed to not really enjoy Sydney's flirting much. Think about that for the votes at the end. Also Sydney's proclamation that she like the sneakiness of it was interesting. For her sake I'm going to assume that got cut into the show from some other conversation and she didn't say that just before Tribal. Sydney is gorgeous by the way. She is right up there in the best-looking Survivors ever.
My Prediction
Sandy. I'm getting on the board this week and not falling for any fake dispute. A vote for Joe? Must have been that Taj said she wouldn't vote for Sandy. We didn't really see any reasoning to explain that one.
Season total: 1-3 (.250)
Spell Check
Right: 6
Wrong: 0
Other: 1 (Mama K)
Season total: 20-8-2 (.714)
Quick hit thoughts
- If Coach is so much fitter than Brendan why wasn't he in the Reward challenge?
- Stephen looked especially goofy when he was running. That can't just be because he's a Jewish city boy
- The immunity challenge would have been made much better by a huge collision on the course
- How is Coach so sure that no one else has been in the wild or could survive without him?
- Tyson's loincloth was very funny but not inoffensive.
- Erinn is not long for this game, she doesn't seem to make an effort to connect with anyone
Labels: crazy, disaster averted, Tocantins
Sunday, March 01, 2009
Survivor: Tocantins - 1803
I'll say it. Coach is gold for this season. He's making this show. Assistant Coach Tyson is also funny but with a more droll sense of humor than Coach's bombast. That guy might just talk a lot but every time he's on camera I'm ready for a sound bite. When he said at tribal "I told everyone with my eyes to get what they need to get" that just cracked me up. Tyson's analysis of "[Coach is] not always the best at what he's coaching, but he thinks he knows the most is right on". I still think he's got little chance at this one but I'm glad that he's around. He's like Shane from Panama you just don't want to miss anything. Wait until Coach breaks out his blackberry. I'm also waiting for more recreations of teammates' facial expressions - like "The Look".
Reward Challenge
I like the blindfolded challenges because it is all about communication. In this episode we really saw two ends of the spectrum. Jalapao was great, Timbira was terrible. Timbira started off with a poor choice. When you have a challenge where there is one caller, make sure that you get someone with a booming voice that won't be hoarse in two minutes. Debbie screamed herself out, partly because she was completely flustered.
On strategy in these challenges. Getting the whole team in a chain is okay but probably takes too much time initially. Then you also run into the problem of knowing how many people need to get water or corn at a time. Best to have someone who can guide 3 people. Next time there is an air traffic controller on my team you know who will be the caller. He'd guide everyone and then get a cup of coffee.
Joe performed really well in this challenge, I didn't even know he was in this game. Same thing with Sydney. My guess is since they have so little screen time they'll be around for a while. Although the preview shows the new flirty Sydney so she might be gone soon.
When Brendan and Taj went back to Exile it was a good bet they'd find the idol. They are pairing up into a strong team if they both make the merge. They could be the hidden alliance, except that everyone knows they have spent a lot of time together. I'm not sure of the best strategy on sending people to Exile. The same person every time which is normally good since you know who has the idol and can blindside them might not be advantageous if they build a good relationship with someone on the other tribe.
Immunity Challenge
The immunity challenge setup made it look pretty cool. It was certainly physical but then the final combined a mental/physcial element. Unlike most of the puzzles at the end this had the whole tribe involved so you have the potential for mass chaos. That's what we got. Jalapao put the hammer down and took another one, showing the definite swing in momentum. Jerry underperformed and actually said "I'm done". That might have put him out of it.
Strategy Analysis
Oh Jerry, Jerry. You can't lay around all day, not eat, underperform in the challenges and expect to stick around. I admire the fact that he wouldn't quite. No Osten performances here. He didn't even give the cop out "I'm not quitting but everyone vote for me" which in my mind is even worse than quitting. If you're going to quit then own it! Tyson tried to give him the pep talk to suck it up but by that point he'd already thrown in the towel and demonstrated too much weakness.
This does get back to the question that it is hard to imagine how difficult it is to actually survive out there. A lot of this game is making it through and he might have been very bad off. Same issue came up with the Reward. Winning some pillows and a tarp doesn't seem that great compared to food but I think that it's easier to imagine how hungry they are than it is to imagine how physically miserable it is.
My Prediction
Erinn. You don't cross Coach and Jerry's not too bad off. I'm off to an awesome start this year. Just bet against me in Vegas or the Caymans or wherever. I guess that I just bought into the CBS buildup.
Season total: 0-3 (.000)
Spell Check
Right: 6
Wrong: 0
Other: 1 (Pimp Daddy Jerry Sims)
Season total: 14-8-1 (.636)
Quick hit thoughts
Reward Challenge
I like the blindfolded challenges because it is all about communication. In this episode we really saw two ends of the spectrum. Jalapao was great, Timbira was terrible. Timbira started off with a poor choice. When you have a challenge where there is one caller, make sure that you get someone with a booming voice that won't be hoarse in two minutes. Debbie screamed herself out, partly because she was completely flustered.
On strategy in these challenges. Getting the whole team in a chain is okay but probably takes too much time initially. Then you also run into the problem of knowing how many people need to get water or corn at a time. Best to have someone who can guide 3 people. Next time there is an air traffic controller on my team you know who will be the caller. He'd guide everyone and then get a cup of coffee.
Joe performed really well in this challenge, I didn't even know he was in this game. Same thing with Sydney. My guess is since they have so little screen time they'll be around for a while. Although the preview shows the new flirty Sydney so she might be gone soon.
When Brendan and Taj went back to Exile it was a good bet they'd find the idol. They are pairing up into a strong team if they both make the merge. They could be the hidden alliance, except that everyone knows they have spent a lot of time together. I'm not sure of the best strategy on sending people to Exile. The same person every time which is normally good since you know who has the idol and can blindside them might not be advantageous if they build a good relationship with someone on the other tribe.
Immunity Challenge
The immunity challenge setup made it look pretty cool. It was certainly physical but then the final combined a mental/physcial element. Unlike most of the puzzles at the end this had the whole tribe involved so you have the potential for mass chaos. That's what we got. Jalapao put the hammer down and took another one, showing the definite swing in momentum. Jerry underperformed and actually said "I'm done". That might have put him out of it.
Strategy Analysis
Oh Jerry, Jerry. You can't lay around all day, not eat, underperform in the challenges and expect to stick around. I admire the fact that he wouldn't quite. No Osten performances here. He didn't even give the cop out "I'm not quitting but everyone vote for me" which in my mind is even worse than quitting. If you're going to quit then own it! Tyson tried to give him the pep talk to suck it up but by that point he'd already thrown in the towel and demonstrated too much weakness.
This does get back to the question that it is hard to imagine how difficult it is to actually survive out there. A lot of this game is making it through and he might have been very bad off. Same issue came up with the Reward. Winning some pillows and a tarp doesn't seem that great compared to food but I think that it's easier to imagine how hungry they are than it is to imagine how physically miserable it is.
My Prediction
Erinn. You don't cross Coach and Jerry's not too bad off. I'm off to an awesome start this year. Just bet against me in Vegas or the Caymans or wherever. I guess that I just bought into the CBS buildup.
Season total: 0-3 (.000)
Spell Check
Right: 6
Wrong: 0
Other: 1 (Pimp Daddy Jerry Sims)
Season total: 14-8-1 (.636)
Quick hit thoughts
- After Brendan's totally whiffing on the first clue, I'm somewhat amazed he found the immunity idol. He did hide it at camp so that's a good start. Hopefully there's no switcheroo.
- Erinn's dissing Candace after tribal was a very poor job of distancing herself.
- Coach, the first man who demands to be the leader of his tribe that much.
- For a blindfolded challenge you can do at home, balance yourself on one foot with your eyes open and then close your eyes. It's hard!
